Water-War by India, will it make Pakistan thirsty?

Indus water Treaty – Pakistan got 4 times the river water than India ?

Many wars and conflict have happened worldwide due to sharing of waters with other countries. The country at upstream of the river always consider 100% exclusive rights to use the river water , ignoring the other country at down stream of the rivers . This has led to multiple wars in the history. In the history . 1,600 incidents had happened previously where water was a point of conflict to a trigger to use of weapons, casualty of violence or wars.

Major water conflict are listed below –

1. Jordan River Dispute (1960s, Middle East)
   Tensions over water diversion projects led to confrontations between Israel and Arab states, contributing to the Six-Day War in 1967.
2. Nile River Dispute (Egypt–Ethiopia–Sudan)
   The construction of Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam has raised concerns in Egypt and Sudan over reduced water flow, leading to heightened diplomatic tensions.
3. Tigris–Euphrates Basin Conflicts (Turkey–Syria–Iraq)
   Turkey’s Southeastern Anatolia Project, involving dam constructions, has affected downstream water availability, leading to disputes with Syria and Iraq.
4. Helmand River Dispute (Afghanistan–Iran)
   In 2023, tensions over water rights from the Helmand River escalated into deadly clashes between Afghan and Iranian forces.
5. Indus Waters Treaty Tensions (India–Pakistan)
   The 1960 treaty has generally held, but recent events, such as India’s suspension of the treaty in April 2025 following a militant attack, have escalated tensions, with Pakistan warning that restricting water flows could be considered an “act of war.”

Partition –

India-Pakistan partition was the worst decision made by Britishers in 1947 . Muslim got their own country as Pakistan but leaving behind almost same no of Muslim in India who are Indian citizen. As of now Indian Population 1,400 Million including 204 Million Muslim , Pakistan Population is 255 Million . Most of Muslim in Pakistan have a built-in enmity with India. Despite that  same number of Muslims are living in India , Pakistan relation with India has not been good which has resulted in to four wars. The Partition was unfair on many account . Division of Kashmir , river Water and cross border terrorism is creating lot of conflict between India and Pakistan .

Indus Water Treaty ( 1960 ) –

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan is a water-sharing agreement , brokered by the World Bank and signed in 1960. It governs the use of the waters of the Indus River system ( 6 major rivers ) , which flows through both countries and is vital for agriculture and livelihoods in the region. This treaty is appeared to be written in favour of Pakistan ?

Key Points of the Treaty:

1. Rivers Covered: The Indus River system includes six major rivers:
2. Western Rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab ( mostly in Pakistan )
3. Eastern Rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej ( Mostly in India )
4. Water Allocation:
5. India gets exclusive rights over the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej).
6. Pakistan gets exclusive rights over the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), although India is allowed limited use for non-consumptive purposes like:
   1. Irrigation (within certain limits)
   1. Hydropower generation (without storage)
   1. Navigation and fishing

• Dispute Resolution : The treaty provides a three-step dispute resolution process:
• Bilateral negotiations between the two countries.
• If unresolved, it goes to a Neutral Expert appointed by the World Bank.
• As a last resort, it can go to a Court of Arbitration.
• Significance:
• It’s considered one of the most successful  water-sharing agreements.
• Even during wars and political tensions, the treaty has generally held firm.
• But due to recent Pehalgam terror attack in April 2025 , this treaty has been made dead by india.

Conflicts :

• The treaty appeared to be written in Favour of Pakistan
• In recent years, there have been disputes over Indian hydropower projects on Western rivers, with Pakistan claiming they violate the treaty.
• India has occasionally hinted at reviewing or modifying the treaty, especially after terror attacks it blames on Pakistan-based groups.
• In April 2025 India declared that the water sharing treaty with Pakistan stand cancelled, this was done as a punitive action after Terrorist killed 25 Hindu tourists in Pehalgam ( J&K).

Indus Water Treaty Table

A )  In Pakistan ( Western Rivers of the Treaty )

Length of Rivers –

Under the Indus Waters Treaty, the Western Rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—are allocated primarily to Pakistan. Here are their approximate lengths:

Western Rivers and Their Lengths:

1. Indus River

Total Length: ~3,180 km (1,976 mi)

In India: ~1,114 km (before it enters Pakistan in Ladakh/Gilgit-Baltistan)

2. Jhelum River

Total Length: ~725 km

In India: ~400 km (originates in Jammu & Kashmir)

3. Chenab River

Total Length: ~1,200 km

In India: ~504 km (formed by the confluence of Chandra and Bhaga rivers in Himachal Pradesh, flows through J&K)

Treaty Context:

India can use these rivers mean for Pakistan for limited purposes (like run-of-the-river hydropower, irrigation, navigation) without altering the flow significantly.

The major portion of their flow (around 80%) is reserved for Pakistan, as they flow into its territory and are crucial for its agriculture.

River Capacity –

Under the Indus Waters Treaty (1960), the Western Rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—carry a total average annual flow of about 135 million acre-feet (MAF) of water, which is allocated mostly to Pakistan.

Breakdown of Western Rivers’ Water Volume:

Treaty Provisions:

• Pakistan has exclusive rights over almost all the water from the Western Rivers.
• India is allowed limited usage

The World Bank, which helped broker the treaty, estimates that about 80% of the total Indus system water goes to Pakistan, primarily from these Western Rivers.

Irrigation Cover –

Under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), Pakistan has exclusive rights to use the Western Rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—for agriculture, irrigation, and other uses. but India is permitted limited irrigation use from these rivers under strict conditions.

Irrigation Coverage under the Treaty

Pakistan’s Irrigation Rights (Western Rivers):

• Primary beneficiary of the Western Rivers.
• Uses over 80% of the total Indus basin flow (approx. 135 MAF).
• The Indus Basin Irrigation System is the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world, covering over 14 million hectares (35 million acres) of agricultural land.

• India is allowed limited use of Western Rivers for irrigation under specific clauses. All Indian projects must not materially reduce flow into Pakistan and are subject to design constraints and notification to Pakistan.

Population cover of Rivers in Pakistan  –

Estimated Population Dependent on Western Rivers

Pakistan (Major Beneficiary)

• The Western Rivers account for over 80% of Pakistan’s water supply, especially for irrigation.
• Over 120 million people (more than half of Pakistan’s ~240 million population) live in the Indus Basin, especially in Punjab and Sindh provinces.
• The entire irrigation system of Pakistan is heavily reliant on the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

In India (Upper Riparian area)

• While India gets limited rights over the Western Rivers, they still flow through key regions in northern India.
• Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and parts of Punjab lie in the Western River basin.
• Estimated 20–25 million people in India live in regions directly affected by these rivers.

Dams on Rivers in Pakistan –

Pakistan’s Hydro Projects on Western Rivers

Pakistan has full rights to store, divert, and generate power on the Western Rivers.

Disputes & Arbitration

• India and Pakistan have clashed over project designs—especially for Baglihar, Kishanganga, and Ratle.

Power Generation in Pakistan

Pakistan has full rights to store, divert, and generate power on the Western Rivers.

Major Cities on Pakistan Rivers –

On Indus River:

• Islamabad , Rawalpindi , Hydrabad ( Sind ) , Sukkar , Multan

On Jhelum River:

• Jhelum City (Punjab) , Mirpur  , Srinagar ( India )

On Chenab River:

• Gujrat (Punjab) , Jhang , Muzaffargarh , Jammu ( India )

GDP of Pakistan on Western Rivers :-

Overall Economic Impact:

The waters of the Western Rivers contribute to about 25% of Pakistan’s GDP, underscoring their importance beyond agriculture, including in sectors like hydropower and industry.

B ) In India ( Eastern Rivers of the Treaty )

Under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), the Eastern Rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—are allocated exclusively to India for use. This means that India has full rights over the water of these rivers for purposes such as irrigation, hydropower, storage, and industrial use, with minimal flow allowed to Pakistan.

Here’s a breakdown of the Eastern Rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—under the Indus Waters Treaty, including their lengths and treaty-related context.

Treaty Context:

• India has exclusive rights over the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej).
• India can use 100% of their waters for:
• Irrigation
• Hydropower
• Storage
• Domestic and industrial use

• Pakistan receives minimal flow from Indian river, mainly due to spillover or monsoon floods.

Treaty Context:

• India has exclusive rights over the Eastern Rivers under the treaty, allowing the construction of:
• Storage facilities
• Irrigation works
• Hydropower projects
• Domestic use and industrial use

River Capacity of Indian Rivers :-

Under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), the Eastern Rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—are allocated exclusively to India for use. This means that India has full rights over the water of these rivers for purposes such as irrigation, hydropower, storage, and industrial use, with minimal flow allowed to Pakistan.

Here’s an overview of the water capacity or flow of the Eastern Rivers which belong to India :

 Water Flow Capacity of the Eastern Rivers (Approximate Averages)

1. Ravi River
2. Average Annual Flow: ~7,500 million m3
3. India’s Allocation: 100% (India can use all the water from this river)
4. Beas River
5. Average Annual Flow: ~5,600 million m3
6. India’s Allocation: 100%

3. Sutlej River
4. Average Annual Flow: ~13,000 million m3
5. India’s Allocation: 100%

 Treaty Context:

• India has exclusive rights to use all the water from the Eastern Rivers for:
• Irrigation: Large-scale irrigation networks
• Hydropower: Multiple hydropower plants on the rivers, including Bhakra Nangal (on Sutlej) and Ranjit Sagar (on Ravi).
• Storage: India can build storage facilities, such as dams and reservoirs.
• Domestic and industrial use: Water is used for drinking, agriculture, and industries in Punjab, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh.

Irrigated Area Coverage:-        

Under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), India has full rights to the waters of the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej), which means India can build dams, canals, and irrigation systems on these rivers.

• The Eastern Rivers Which is part of India support millions of acres of agricultural land :
• Punjab alone accounts for around 50% of India’s total wheat production.
• Irrigated areas in Haryana and Rajasthan also rely heavily on the water from these rivers for rice and wheat cultivation.

Approximate Irrigation Area:

• Punjab (India): Over 10 million acres (largely dependent on Eastern Rivers).
• Haryana: Around 3.5 million acres.
• Rajasthan: Extensive irrigation in the Thar Desert due to Indira Gandhi Canal (fed by Sutlej).
• Total 27 Million Acres

Key Takeaways:

• India uses all the waters of the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) under the Indus Waters Treaty for irrigation, which supports large-scale agriculture in northern India.
• The Eastern Rivers are crucial to feeding billions of people by supporting key crops like wheat, rice, and cotton.

Indian Population dependent on Eastern Rivers :-

The Eastern Rivers under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—flow primarily through northern India, supporting a dense population due to their role in agriculture, drinking water, industry, and hydropower.

In India (Full Rights under the Treaty)

The rivers flow mainly through Punjab, Haryana, and parts of Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan. Here’s an approximate estimate:

Total Estimated Population in India (dependent on Eastern Rivers):
~60–75 million people

These people depend on the rivers for:

• Irrigation (crops like wheat, rice, sugarcane)
• Drinking water
• Hydropower
• Industrial and domestic water needs

Dams and power Generation on Indian rivers as per Indus Treaty : –

Under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), India has exclusive rights to the Eastern Rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. This includes full rights to use their waters for hydropower generation, along with irrigation, domestic, and industrial use.

Dams & Power Generation on Eastern Rivers under Indus Treaty are –

 On Sutlej River –

1. Bhakra Dam
   • Location: Sutlej River, Himachal Pradesh/Punjab border
   • Hydropower Capacity: 1,325 MW
   • Significance: One of India’s largest multipurpose dams, also supports irrigation and flood control.

2. Nathpa Jhakri Hydro Power Station
   • Location: Upper Sutlej, Himachal Pradesh
   • Capacity: 1,500 MW

3. Karcham Wangtoo Project
   • Location: Sutlej, Himachal Pradesh
   • Capacity: 1,000 MW

4. Rampur Hydroelectric Project
   • Location: Sutlej, Himachal Pradesh
   • Capacity: 412 MW

 On Beas River –

1. Pandoh Dam
   • Location: Himachal Pradesh
   • Capacity: Transfers water to Sutlej via Beas-Sutlej Link for power generation at Dehar Power House.
2. Dehar Power House
   • Location: On the diverted flow from Beas to Sutlej
   • Hydropower Capacity: 990 MW
3. Largi Hydro Electric Project
   • Location: Himachal Pradesh
   • Capacity: 126 MW

On Ravi River

1. Ranjit Sagar Dam (Thein Dam)
   • Location: Punjab (on Ravi River)
   • Hydropower Capacity: 600 MW
   • Purpose: Multipurpose project for power, irrigation, and storage

Total Installed Hydropower Capacity on Eastern Rivers

Estimated total: 6,000–7,000 MW
(including associated projects on canals and link systems)

Treaty Provisions:

• India is allowed to store water and generate electricity on Eastern Rivers without restriction.
• This is different from the Western Rivers, where India must follow strict design criteria under the treaty when building hydropower projects.

Hydropower capacity from Eastern Rivers is approximately:

Major Cities along Eastern Rivers ( in India)

On Ravi River – Amritsar

On Beas River – Jalandhar

On Sutlej – Ludhiana , Ferozpur , Bathinda , Chandigarh , Hisar , Sirsa

Summary

• The Eastern Rivers support over 60 million people in northern India.
• These rivers are lifelines for agriculture, urban water supply, and industry.

Conclusion :

Conflict –

Recent developments have put the treaty under unprecedented strain. On April 23, 2025, following a deadly militant attack in Pahalgam ( Kashmir ) by killing 26 Hindu Tourist , that India attributes to Pakistan-based terrorist groups, India announced the suspension of the IWT. This move has significant implications for both countries and the broader South Asian region.

Water security risk to Pakistan –

Pakistan  relies heavily on the Indus river system, with approximately 80% of its irrigated agriculture dependent on the waters allocated under the IWT. The suspension of the treaty raises concerns about water scarcity, which could severely impact Pakistan’s agricultural productivity and food security. Any disruption in water flow from the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) could exacerbate existing water shortages and affect millions of livelihoods.

Danger in future –

The deterioration of India-Pakistan relations over the IWT could invite involvement from other regional players, such as China, which has its own interests in South Asian water resources. We have been listening about the water War in the past in another country , but this time Pakistan may face it in reality if current Indo-Pak conflict worsen.

Current Situation (end April 25)

There are 3 dams  which are constructed by India in India on Wester rivers which flow to Pakistan . India has threatened to stop water flow to Pakistan on the following Dams .

1. Baglihar Dam (Chenab River)

• Location: On the Chenab River in Jammu and Kashmir (Indian-administered region).
• Purpose: This dam is primarily designed for hydropower generation and is a controversial project between India and Pakistan. It has a capacity of 450 MW and is one of the most significant Indian projects on the western rivers.

2. Kishanganga Dam (Jhelum River)

• Location: On the Kishanganga River, a tributary of the Jhelum River, in Jammu and Kashmir (Indian-administered region).
• Purpose: This dam, with a capacity of 330 MW, is used for hydropower generation. It diverts water from the Kishanganga into a different basin to generate electricity.

3. Sawalkote Dam (Chenab River)

• Location: On the Chenab River, also in Jammu and Kashmir (Indian-administered region).
• Purpose: This proposed project, which is still under development, is intended to provide hydropower generation capacity (about 1,000 MW).

End Result –

If India do stop permanently the flow of river water to Pakistan at the dams controlled by India .  It will lead to bigger a conflict and may be full scale a war ?